Holly Thompson

Tentative US–Iran ceasefire extension calms markets, but ongoing strikes and mixed signals keep risk sentiment fragile. Focus shifts to Hormuz, central bank hawkishness, and a headline-driven, low-vol FX environment with USD support.

Hormuz tensions roil markets as bond selloffs deepen and Fed bets rise. AI-driven US equities hit records, while UK political turmoil hits sterling. Despite US–China thaw talk, focus stays on inflation, yields, and geopolitical risk.

Markets swung toward de‑escalation optimism on US‑Iran talks, lifting equities and EM assets while weighing on the dollar. But oil volatility, supply‑chain strain, and political risks mean uncertainty remains elevated.

Yen shocks, oil jolts, equities soar. Suspected Japan FX intervention hit USD/JPY, while Hormuz risks and the UAE’s OPEC exit lifted oil. Stocks shrugged it off as central banks held rates but sounded hawkish.

US–Iran tensions at Hormuz lifted oil and cooled the equity rally. FX calm looks complacent as Europe’s PMIs weaken, UK data turns mixed, Warsh steadied markets, and focus shifts to looming central bank decisions.

Shock, not awe: a brief Hormuz blockade lifted oil and the USD, but markets shrugged. Volatility cooled, oil reversed, equities hit records, and the dollar slipped—raising doubts markets ran ahead of diplomacy.