Holly Thompson

The dollar hit four‑year lows before rebounding as risk aversion surged. VIX spiked on geopolitics and AI fears, oil jumped on Iran tensions, tech slid on AI doubts, and traders raised cash across metals and EMs.

Markets steadied as tariff tensions eased, JGBs slumped, and safe‑haven flows favoured the franc. AUD and NZD outperformed while JPY lagged, with the USD softening ahead of a closely watched Fed meeting.

Markets stay eerily calm as political heat rises – hawkish Fed signals, safe‑haven metals surge, FX slumps, and oil whipsaws on geopolitical shocks.

Early FX moves reflect incoming economic data and central bank expectations as markets head straight into the year’s first tests.

Cooling US inflation and softening payrolls fuel hopes for Fed cuts, while global central banks diverge: the BoE trims, the ECB holds steady, the BoJ hikes, and falling crude drags commodity FX.