Holly Thompson
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Trade deadline nears, pressure mounts
Stronger-than-expected US jobs cut Fed rate odds to 5%, while July 9 tariffs loom over stalled global trade talks.
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Dovish drift, dollar drift
Geopolitical tensions eased and equities rallied, weakening the dollar. Dovish Fed commentary and speculation over Powell’s succession added pressure, pushing the euro above $1.17 and lifting most G10 currencies.
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Risk runs on fuel
Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices lifted the dollar, while surprise rate cuts in Europe contrasted with the Fed’s hawkish tone. The BoE held steady, but soft UK data and dovish vote split signalled easing ahead.
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Geopolitical risks roar back into focus
Israel’s strike on Iran sent oil and volatility surging, overshadowing softer US inflation and tariff risks.
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Less trade drama, more macro action
Markets cheer US-China trade talks, but weak US data, tech turmoil, and diverging central bank signals keep pressure on the dollar and risk sentiment cautious.
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Never a dull moment
Tariffs flipped, the dollar slipped, and bond yields eased – all in a week. With mixed signals piling up, a volatile summer looks likely.