Holly Thompson

World Cup kickoff meets market gridlock: energy-driven inflation keeps hawks in play, while tentative US–Iran deal hopes spark risk-on swings—lifting equities, easing oil, and leaving FX stuck as central banks gear up for key decisions.

Dollar strength persists on resilient US data and geopolitics. Strong payrolls dampen rate-cut hopes, equities lose momentum, oil supports inflation, volatility stays low, Japan signals FX intervention, and a packed central bank calendar looms.

Tentative US–Iran ceasefire extension calms markets, but ongoing strikes and mixed signals keep risk sentiment fragile. Focus shifts to Hormuz, central bank hawkishness, and a headline-driven, low-vol FX environment with USD support.

Hormuz tensions roil markets as bond selloffs deepen and Fed bets rise. AI-driven US equities hit records, while UK political turmoil hits sterling. Despite US–China thaw talk, focus stays on inflation, yields, and geopolitical risk.

Markets swung toward de‑escalation optimism on US‑Iran talks, lifting equities and EM assets while weighing on the dollar. But oil volatility, supply‑chain strain, and political risks mean uncertainty remains elevated.

Yen shocks, oil jolts, equities soar. Suspected Japan FX intervention hit USD/JPY, while Hormuz risks and the UAE’s OPEC exit lifted oil. Stocks shrugged it off as central banks held rates but sounded hawkish.