Holly Thompson

  • Straight into the deep end

    Straight into the deep end

    Early FX moves reflect incoming economic data and central bank expectations as markets head straight into the year’s first tests.

  • Fed cut hopes fuel Santa spirit

    Fed cut hopes fuel Santa spirit

    Cooling US inflation and softening payrolls fuel hopes for Fed cuts, while global central banks diverge: the BoE trims, the ECB holds steady, the BoJ hikes, and falling crude drags commodity FX.

  • Policy recalibration, conviction lacking

    Policy recalibration, conviction lacking

    ECB’s Schnabel signaled comfort with a hike, sparking global yield recalibration. Dollar weakened on soft US jobs, while central banks held rates. France survived a budget test; Fed cuts lifted stocks before Oracle’s AI costs dampened gains.

  • Keep calm, but watch the carry

    Keep calm, but watch the carry

    Global markets eye record highs as MSCI rebounds, dollar weakens, and Fed cut bets surge. Japan’s yield spike stirs carry trade fears, while political risks loom in Germany.

  • Serving up leaks

    Serving up leaks

    Markets breathe easy as November ends: S&P 500 posts best Thanksgiving week since 2012, Nasdaq jumps 5%, pound leads G10 on UK Budget bounce, and Fed cut bets hit 90% amid softer labor data and dovish chair speculation.

  • Red tide returns

    Red tide returns

    Markets reversed as AI fears hit equities, volatility spiked, Bitcoin slid, US jobs showed rising unemployment, Fed cuts delayed, Japan approved $135bn stimulus, and UK awaits Reeves’ Nov 26 Budget.