Holly Thompson
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Another week, another shock
Yen shocks, oil jolts, equities soar. Suspected Japan FX intervention hit USD/JPY, while Hormuz risks and the UAE’s OPEC exit lifted oil. Stocks shrugged it off as central banks held rates but sounded hawkish.
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Still in limbo, prone to shocks
US–Iran tensions at Hormuz lifted oil and cooled the equity rally. FX calm looks complacent as Europe’s PMIs weaken, UK data turns mixed, Warsh steadied markets, and focus shifts to looming central bank decisions.
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Peace hopes fuel risk rally
Shock, not awe: a brief Hormuz blockade lifted oil and the USD, but markets shrugged. Volatility cooled, oil reversed, equities hit records, and the dollar slipped—raising doubts markets ran ahead of diplomacy.
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A truce too loose?
Ceasefire sparks market fireworks: a fragile two‑week US–Iran truce drove a sharp risk‑on surge, crushed oil before a snapback, whipsawed rates and FX, and left markets hyper‑alert to any breakdown.
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Little clarity on escalation versus ceasefire
Markets jitter as Trump extends Iran strike deadlines and talks stall. Strait disruptions drive fuel shortages, oil spikes and growth risks. PMIs cool, tech slides, the dollar firms and $200 oil fears loom.
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Chaos refuses to clear
Global markets reel as surging energy prices and Middle East tensions fuel inflation fears. Stocks sink, yields spike, supply chains snarl and metals tumble, while central banks hold rates and the dollar eases slightly.