USMCA (CUSMA), oil shock, growth, and FX impact

CUSMA at a crossroads: What July 1 means for North America

North America’s trade agreement is up for review on July 1, 2026. More than a procedural trade milestone, the CUSMA review will be a live test of confidence across North America at a time when businesses are already managing tariff friction, soft Canadian growth, stronger US resilience, and a more volatile energy and rates backdrop.

Download our CUSMA report to:

  • Understand the real significance of July 1: The review may be routine, but the implications are not.
  • See why this is confidence story, not just a trade story: The biggest risk is prolonged uncertainty—not immediate breakdown.
  • Make sense of the north American macro backdrop: Weaker Canadian momentum, stronger U.S. resilience, and Mexico’s positioning all matter.
  • Interpret the implications for CAD and FX risk: Trade uncertainty matters, but growth and rate divergence may matter more in the near term.

Why this matters

For businesses exposed to North American trade and currency risk, the review is not just about policy headlines. It is about whether the region moves back toward stability — or whether uncertainty around rules, access, and long-term planning continues to weigh on investment and pricing decisions.