Topic: Weekly FX Report

Global markets wobble as a tech selloff hits AI valuations and “higher-for-longer” rates weigh. Oil plunges on rising supply, easing inflation fears. FX softens, commodities slip, and UK political shifts add cautious uncertainty.

Global equity markets moved higher and oil tumbled, but FX was more muted as markets reacted to the US–Iran peace deal. However, the USD later hit a one-year highs after US Federal Chair Kevin Warsh kept rates on hold in his highly anticipated debut.

World Cup kickoff meets market gridlock: energy-driven inflation keeps hawks in play, while tentative US–Iran deal hopes spark risk-on swings—lifting equities, easing oil, and leaving FX stuck as central banks gear up for key decisions.

Dollar strength persists on resilient US data and geopolitics. Strong payrolls dampen rate-cut hopes, equities lose momentum, oil supports inflation, volatility stays low, Japan signals FX intervention, and a packed central bank calendar looms.

Tentative US–Iran ceasefire extension calms markets, but ongoing strikes and mixed signals keep risk sentiment fragile. Focus shifts to Hormuz, central bank hawkishness, and a headline-driven, low-vol FX environment with USD support.

Equities continue to look through inflation and energy risks. The dominant macro story has been a global bond sell-off led by the US long end. FX has been re-anchored to real yield dynamics.