Topic: Weekly FX Report

Markets swung toward de‑escalation optimism on US‑Iran talks, lifting equities and EM assets while weighing on the dollar. But oil volatility, supply‑chain strain, and political risks mean uncertainty remains elevated.

Yen shocks, oil jolts, equities soar. Suspected Japan FX intervention hit USD/JPY, while Hormuz risks and the UAE’s OPEC exit lifted oil. Stocks shrugged it off as central banks held rates but sounded hawkish.

US–Iran tensions at Hormuz lifted oil and cooled the equity rally. FX calm looks complacent as Europe’s PMIs weaken, UK data turns mixed, Warsh steadied markets, and focus shifts to looming central bank decisions.

Shock, not awe: a brief Hormuz blockade lifted oil and the USD, but markets shrugged. Volatility cooled, oil reversed, equities hit records, and the dollar slipped—raising doubts markets ran ahead of diplomacy.

Ceasefire sparks market fireworks: a fragile two‑week US–Iran truce drove a sharp risk‑on surge, crushed oil before a snapback, whipsawed rates and FX, and left markets hyper‑alert to any breakdown.

Markets jitter as Trump extends Iran strike deadlines and talks stall. Strait disruptions drive fuel shortages, oil spikes and growth risks. PMIs cool, tech slides, the dollar firms and $200 oil fears loom.