Topic: Weekly FX Report

Oil above $100, renewed tariff risks and shifting rate expectations have lifted demand for the US dollar, leaving markets focused on central banks, inflation and the outlook for global growth.

Cooling US inflation has eased immediate market concerns, but rising oil prices and escalating US-Iran tensions are keeping investors cautious. With growth holding firm and volatility low, markets remain stuck in a higher-for-longer, low-conviction environment.

Rising Middle East tensions sent oil prices and bond yields higher, reviving rate hike expectations on both sides of the Atlantic. Despite growing geopolitical and inflation concerns, currency markets remained relatively calm, supporting higher-yielding currencies.

June closed with falling mega-cap tech stocks, renewed Middle East tensions and a weaker US dollar after disappointing jobs data. Sterling gained ground as markets navigated geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Global markets wobble as a tech selloff hits AI valuations and “higher-for-longer” rates weigh. Oil plunges on rising supply, easing inflation fears. FX softens, commodities slip, and UK political shifts add cautious uncertainty.

Global equity markets moved higher and oil tumbled, but FX was more muted as markets reacted to the US–Iran peace deal. However, the USD later hit a one-year highs after US Federal Chair Kevin Warsh kept rates on hold in his highly anticipated debut.