Region: Europe
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De‑escalation narrative awaits validation
Markets stall asymmetrically as de-escalation awaits confirmation. Resilient, but still waiting for conviction. Sterling holds, but upside lacks conviction.
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All-time highs, old trades unwound
From war premium to peace trade. EUR sentiment improves, but proof still pending. UK GDP surprise lifts pound, but outlook fragile.
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De-escalation bias still alive
Markets pivot as geopolitical tensions ease. Up seven days straight. Sterling rally faces macro reality.
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Back to de‑escalation
Blockade without fire keeps markets steady. The euro’s quiet comeback. Sterling jumps back to pre-war level.
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Weekend talks fail
Oil surges again as peace talks break down. Escalation returns but euro stays calm. Risk-off shakes sterling – barely.
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Markets test the durability of de‑escalation
Lower yields, lower dollar, despite mixed signals. Euro rides fragile optimism and hawkish tailwinds. Sterling’s diverging paths.