Region: Europe

Oil anchors rates, dollar stays range bound. Sterling’s sell-off on hold. Euro capped by uncertainty.

Peace deal hopes denting dollar support. Buoyed by external forces, tested by local politics. Relief rally, limited upside.

Re‑escalation fears fade. Euro in holding pattern around 1.17. UK risk premium builds.

Escalation flare‑Up, downside bias builds. Oil risk, Yen intervention, and April’s risk rally. Upside stalls as local elections loom.

Japanese intervention drives broad dollar pullback as yen surges. ECB prepared to hike in June. BoE on “active hold”.

Powell’s farewell, Fed fractures deepen. ECB caution, limited FX impact. All eyes on BoE as oil pressures sterling.