US dollar pulls back as tech slump weighs on risk mood
The US dollar eased from one-year highs on Friday with global markets still under pressure into the end of June.
While US equities are down around 3–6%, the real story is the scale of losses across the mega-cap tech names. Alphabet is down 20%, Apple 10%, Amazon 16% and Meta 30%.
Markets are entering the northern hemisphere’s low-liquidity window in July and August, which raises the risk of a deeper sell-off. Seasonality is back in focus, reinforcing the “sell in May and go away” narrative.
EUR/USD is now nearly 6% below this year’s high of 1.2081, last seen on 27 Jan. Near-term resistance sits at the 21-day EMA at 1.1490, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.1569. On the downside, 1.1350 stands out as the next key support.
GBP/USD also remains pressured with resistance near the 21-day EMA at 1.3301 and the 50-day EMA close by at 1.3372. Looking lower, 1.3150 is seen as key support.
Euro consolidates as disinflation narrative builds
EUR/USD has found support at 1.1350 and is consolidating just above 1.1400, though it remains more than 2% lower month-to-date.
There has been a notable unwind in hawkish rate pricing across G10, driven largely by the sharp decline in oil prices. ECB expectations have shifted from around 40bps of tightening last week to roughly 25bps now. Similar repricing has occurred for the Fed and BoE.
The key question is how lower oil prices feed through to inflation, and whether growth and labour market dynamics take a more prominent role in central bank reactions.
For the euro, and perhaps FX more broadly, this week’s main risk event is Wednesday’s eurozone CPI release. A downside surprise could cap any move towards 1.1500, especially if US labour data remains firm. Lagarde’s comments at the Sintra Forum will also be in focus after last week’s more dovish tone.
Barring major surprises, EUR/USD may grind higher while holding above 1.1400. The 1.1500–1.1520 zone remains a strong resistance area with no clear catalyst for a sustained break.
RBA signals faster cuts when growth slows
Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Chris Kent said the bank’s new crisis toolkit is about preparedness, not an immediate shift in policy. The cash rate will stay the main lever. However, if it is already low, the board could act sooner and more forcefully if inflation drops below its 2–3% target. That points to a greater willingness to move early in a downturn. Measures such as asset purchases, yield targets, negative rates and FX intervention remain backup options for extreme situations.
That dynamic shows up in GBP/AUD, which climbs to a fresh two-month high as the policy outlook tilts against the Aussie.
Elsewhere, AUD weakness is broad-based, with CAD/AUD reaching a two-week high.
Market snapshot
Table: Currency trends, trading ranges & technical indicators
Key global risk events
Calendar: 29 June – 3 July
All times are in BST
Have a question? [email protected]
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
