Oil gains on Middle East worries
Energy-exposed FX were the winners overnight, with the Australian and Canadian dollars leading as crude extended recent gains.
A potential impasse in Middle East peace talks has seen crude oil rebound this week, with Brent crude up 1.4% overnight and 7.0% for the week so far.
AUD/USD gained 0.1%, while USD/CAD lost 0.1%.
Other markets were also steady overnight, with the euro, pound and kiwi unchanged.
In Asia, USD/SGD gained 0.1%, while USD/CNH was flat.
Looking forward, all eyes are on tonight’s US CPI number, due at 10.30pm AEST.
Steady hand from the RBA
The RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, in line with expectations, with all members backing the decision. Policymakers noted the labour market has softened slightly more than expected, with unemployment rising to 4.4%, although conditions remain tighter than what is considered full employment.
Inflation is still expected to stay elevated in the near term before gradually returning to the midpoint of the 2% to 3% target range by 2028. The RBA also highlighted weaker housing price growth and market activity than previously forecast. Meanwhile, economic growth is projected to slow through 2026 before improving gradually.
AUD/USD remains about 3% below its 6 May high of 0.7278. Initial support sits at the 50-day EMA (0.7015), followed by the 21-day EMA (0.7014). Resistance is at 0.7100.
Singapore raises growth outlook on AI momentum
Singapore upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.5% to 5.5% from 2% to 4%, supported by stronger economic performance in the first half of the year and continued investment in AI-related industries.
GDP grew 5.9% year-on-year in Q2, following 6.3% growth in Q1. On a quarterly basis, growth accelerated to 1.4% from 1.2%. Overall, the economy expanded 6.1% in the first half.
In regional FX, USD/SGD remains around 2% above its 28 January low of 1.2586. Initial resistance is at the 100-day EMA (1.2846), followed by the 50-day EMA (1.2862). On the downside, 1.2750 remains a key support level. Buyers may look for opportunities on pullbacks.
Elsewhere, SGD/JPY is trading at a one-week high.
Aussie at six-week highs after RBA
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 9 – 15 August
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
