Aussie weaker ahead of RBA at 2.30pm
The Australian dollar was weaker over the past 24 hours ahead of today’s RBA policy decision at 2.30pm AEST.
Financial markets are widely expecting the cash rate to remain unchanged at 4.35%, although Bloomberg pricing actually implies a 1.3% chance of a cut.
As a result, Governor Michele Bullock’s statement will be the main focus.
A recent slowdown in inflation data has reduced expectations of further tightening. Additionally, a gloomy prognosis for the Australian housing market means the RBA might be brave to actively discuss further rate hikes.
Oil jumps as US-Iran deal slips away
Oil prices rallied sharply during the past 24 hours as expectations for a near-term US-Iran agreement slumped.
Brent crude gained 5.0% to around USD88 a barrel while WTI rose 5.1% to trade above USD82 after comments from both Washington and Tehran suggested significant differences remain over reopening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran reiterated that the US must first lift its naval blockade, while President Trump downplayed progress in negotiations. The developments prompted traders to rebuild geopolitical risk premiums into energy markets.
The higher oil price mainly supported the US dollar overnight with AUD/USD and NZD/USD down 0.2%.
EUR/USD was down 0.1%, GBP/USD gained 0.2% while USD/CAD was flat.
USD/JPY rebound pushes greenback higher in Asia
The US dollar gained ground in Asian trading over the last 24 hours as USD/JPY saw a sharp rebound from last week’s intervention-driven lows. USD/JPY gained 1.0% yesterday.
Higher US Treasury yields and stronger oil prices supported the greenback.
Most importantly, the impact of US and Japanese intervention efforts has eased as interest-rate differentials still favour the US dollar.
The move in USD/JPY helped lift the broader US dollar against several major and regional currencies during the Asian session.
USD/CNH gained 0.1% while USD/SGD climbed 0.2%.
Kiwi best over last 30 days
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 9 – 15 August
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
