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Warsh’s first test: no easy cuts
Warsh inherits a tough inflation setup. Euro drifts on Gulf stalemate, China in focus. UK assets wobble as Starmer hangs on.
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(Overblown) optimism?
Peace deal hopes denting dollar support. Buoyed by external forces, tested by local politics. Relief rally, limited upside.
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Under threat
Escalation flare‑Up, downside bias builds. Oil risk, Yen intervention, and April’s risk rally. Upside stalls as local elections loom.
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It’s Fed day.
Iran, OPEC, AI and the Fed: everything in play. Supported but still lacking conviction. BoE hawkishness felt more keenly.
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Risk sentiment bruised, not broken
Markets price containment as carry quietly returns. Elevated energy, fragile euro sentiment. Hawkish bias, real carry appeal.
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A new phase, same conflict
On track to snap 3-week losing streak. Facing economic headwinds. Sterling steady, conviction still missing.