Region: Europe
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Under threat
Escalation flare‑Up, downside bias builds. Oil risk, Yen intervention, and April’s risk rally. Upside stalls as local elections loom.
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Yen shock overwhelms central bank bonanza
Japanese intervention drives broad dollar pullback as yen surges. ECB prepared to hike in June. BoE on “active hold”.
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Fed divided, BoE and ECB up next
Powell’s farewell, Fed fractures deepen. ECB caution, limited FX impact. All eyes on BoE as oil pressures sterling.
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It’s Fed day.
Iran, OPEC, AI and the Fed: everything in play. Supported but still lacking conviction. BoE hawkishness felt more keenly.
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Resilient risk appetite despite rising oil
Dollar upside capped. EUR/USD stabilises above 200‑day. Politics to test sterling’s resolve.
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Risk sentiment bruised, not broken
Markets price containment as carry quietly returns. Elevated energy, fragile euro sentiment. Hawkish bias, real carry appeal.