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FX Weekly – Policy easing to come, just not in Q1
Investors are convinced that monetary policy easing is coming this year, just not as early as the consensus had been expecting going into 2024.
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FX Weekly – US shares surge as FX volatility wanes
In a quieter week for global data, purchasing manager indexes (PMIs) were the main releases. The Fed and ECB minutes signalled rate cuts were coming but no time soon. The US dollar is on track to suffer its worst week of 2024, but the Japanese yen remains the clear loser.
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FX Weekly – Disinflation trade in question
After Fed chair Jerome Powell pushed back on expectations earlier this month, this week’s hotter than expected US inflation report was the final nail in the coffin. The USD index hit new three-month highs with the greenback’s best performance versus the low-yielding currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.
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FX Weekly – Calm before potential storm?
Cross-market volatility levels remain compressed as expectations of early rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) sway. The Fed is in a holding pattern and the likelihood of a rate cut in March is priced at less than 20%, a significant decrease from the approximately two-thirds chance anticipated at the beginning of the year.
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FX Weekly – Equity investors indifferent to volatile macro
The ongoing strength of US economic data and company results has seen US equities push higher despite growing uncertainty around potential rate cuts. The US dollar has also gained.
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FX Weekly — The peak of US exceptionalism?
US equities are near record levels and the US dollar is broadly rebounding. We recap what has moved markets this week.