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FX Weekly – Policy volatility driven by inflation ambiguity
Another hot US inflation report has seen market pricing back in line with the FOMC’s own rate projections — looking for three US rate cuts in 2024. However, the pullback in expectations has been orderly, keeping global sharemarkets buoyant.
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USD rebounds ahead of key inflation data
All eyes on CPI. Aussie slips back into short-term downtrend. JPY gains as Japan narrowly avoids recession.
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FX Weekly – Zooming in on Q2 rate cuts
Global investors have become comfortable pricing in the turn of the global monetary policy cycle to a more accommodative stance. October last year saw interest rate cuts outstrip hikes for the first time since the end of 2020 in what has retrospectively become the starting point of a new regime.
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Greenback hits two-month lows after “Goldilocks” jobs result
USD lower as jobs gain, but wages ease. Euro higher after ECB. Green shoots in China.
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Aussie jumps to one-month highs as Powell signals cuts still on
Aussie gains most on Powell comments. China trade balance due. Bank Negara due for MYR.
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FX Weekly – Policy easing to come, just not in Q1
Investors are convinced that monetary policy easing is coming this year, just not as early as the consensus had been expecting going into 2024.