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The list of risks grows
Dollar risks remain tilted to the upside. ECB holds firm as markets price more hikes. Pound’s summer rally loses momentum.
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Elevated geopolitical risk vs. subdued FX volatility
The dollar wants higher. Euro waiting for a catalyst. Burnham is treading carefully, with the bond market listening closely.
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Rising oil is main short-term risk
US inflation cools, but focus returns to oil. ECB optionality to limit euro’s gains. Data, politics and the British pound.
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Market mood turns more cautious
No panic, no dollar surge. A delicate balance for the common currency. Carry support meets growing complacency.
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USD wounded after soft inflation report
Soft CPI reprises Fed risk. Euro holding up but energy risks are growing. Pound consolidates after strong run.
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Risk mood continues to sour
Geopolitics and inflation data dominate. Euro clinging onto 1.14. All eyes on Burnham.