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Intervention extends dollar retreat
Warshspeak + yen shock steepen dollar reset. Euro marching through one-month highs. BoE leaves rates unchanged, sterling little changed.
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All eyes on the Fed
Conflict escalates, FX hesitates. Fed decision to test fragile stabilisation. Sterling gives back ground.
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The list of risks grows
Dollar risks remain tilted to the upside. ECB holds firm as markets price more hikes. Pound’s summer rally loses momentum.
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Elevated geopolitical risk vs. subdued FX volatility
The dollar wants higher. Euro waiting for a catalyst. Burnham is treading carefully, with the bond market listening closely.
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Rising oil is main short-term risk
US inflation cools, but focus returns to oil. ECB optionality to limit euro’s gains. Data, politics and the British pound.
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Market mood turns more cautious
No panic, no dollar surge. A delicate balance for the common currency. Carry support meets growing complacency.