Aussie, kiwi boosted by peace hopes
The Australian dollar extended gains on Monday as hopes for a peace deal between the US and Iran lifted sentiment.
With the US and UK closed for public holidays, financial markets remained focused on the peace talks.
Oil tumbled, with WTI crude down 6.3% and Brent crude falling 7.2%.
In FX markets, the Aussie led gains. AUD/USD rose 0.7% to one-week highs, with the currency strengthening against most peers.
The kiwi also pushed higher, up 0.4% ahead of tomorrow’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision.
Singapore delivers, but clouds are closing in
Singapore’s economy expanded 6.0% y/y in Q1, comfortably above both the 4.6% official estimate and the 5.2% market consensus.
Quarter-on-quarter, growth rebounded to +1.0% from an earlier estimated contraction of 0.3%, with AI-driven demand in electronics and precision engineering doing the heavy lifting.
The trade ministry held its 2026 growth forecast at 2%–4% but struck a more cautious tone on risks, flagging energy supply disruptions, a fresh round of US tariffs, and a potential pullback in global AI-related capital spending.
The data confirm near-term resilience, but the external backdrop is becoming more fragile by the week. April core inflation, due later today, is the next key release to watch.
On USD/SGD, the pair is trading roughly 1.4% above the 1.2586 low last seen on 28 January and is currently near a one-week low. The key psychological level of 1.2700 marks the next support.
With the pair sitting near the lower end of its Bollinger Band, we think dip buyers may begin to emerge.
Xi blindsides Trump’s team with Japan broadside
The Financial Times reports that Xi Jinping caught US officials off guard at this month’s summit with Donald Trump by taking an unusually sharp stance against Japan’s military build-up.
The exchange was reportedly the most heated part of the meeting. Trump pushed back in defence of Tokyo, framing Japan’s increased defence spending as a natural response to a more threatening North Korea.
The episode highlights deepening friction between Beijing and Tokyo, with Japan’s expanding military budget emerging as a genuine sticking point.
USD/CNH is now at a three-year low, trading just above the key psychological level of 6.7800.
For the pair to build upward momentum, a clear break above the 21-day EMA at 6.8090 is needed, which would bring the 50-day EMA at 6.8367 into focus.
Aussie back at one-week highs
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 25 – 29 May
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
