Greenback feels the pressure
The US dollar’s post-Federal Reserve rally looks to be short-lived with the greenback starting the new week lower.
The USD index fell from one-week highs with the euro the best performer as EUR/USD gained 0.5%.
Across the APAC region, the Aussie and kiwi were more muted, with the AUD/USD up 0.1% and the NZD/USD up 0.2%.
The USD/SGD fell 0.2% while USD/CNH fell 0.1%.
AUD steadies as RBA flags sticky prices and strong jobs
RBA Governor Michele Bullock told lawmakers Monday that while inflation has eased significantly, prices aren’t falling, they’re just rising more slowly. She said Australia is in a “very good” spot, with underlying inflation at 2.7%, close to the midpoint of the central bank’s 2–3% target.
Bullock expects household spending to keep growing as real incomes rise, though global risks could cloud the outlook. “We may be seeing more excess demand than expected, and the job market remains strong,” she said, adding that productivity hasn’t improved and labour costs are still climbing. She described employment conditions as “close to full.”
The RBA’s commentary helped the AUD/USD climb from a one-week low.
Traders are watching support levels at 50-day EMA of 0.6549 and 100-day EMA of 0.6508.
BoJ hike buzz grows as JPY nears danger zone
Momentum is building for a possible Bank of Japan rate hike in October after board members Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura struck a surprisingly hawkish tone last week. The odds are rising, especially if US jobs data stays solid and USD/JPY edges closer to the 150 mark.
Right now, the timing of any move by the BoJ seems more tied to US economic signals than domestic ones. Political noise at home looks less disruptive than feared. Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Sanae Takaichi’s Friday speech was low-key and skipped any mention of monetary policy.
USD/JPY is hovering near key support levels at 21-day EMA of 147.59, and 50-day EMA of 147.32. Resistance looms at the 150.00 line, where officials may step in with verbal intervention.
USD slips back under
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 22 – 27 September
All times AEST
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
