Aussie, kiwi rebound after early losses
The US dollar eased from recent highs while US shares recovered from early losses after US President Donald Trump said he had delayed renewed strikes on Iran.
President Trump said he had listened to requests from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar to give diplomatic channels more time to reach a peace agreement.
The news helped volatile equity markets recover, while the USD index turned away from six-week highs after a 1.4% gain last week.
AUD/USD also rebounded from early losses to close yesterday’s session broadly flat. Today, all eyes are on the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes, due at 11:30am AEST.
The New Zealand dollar recovered strongly from initial losses to gain 0.7%
Singapore’s exports surge on AI demand
In April, Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports jumped 24.5% compared to last year. This easily beat the 10.9% forecast and accelerated from the 15.3% growth seen in March, driven heavily by artificial intelligence demand for electronics.
Electronic shipments surged 66.7%, slowing only slightly from March. Non-electronics exports also rebounded, rising 10.9%, largely led by pharmaceuticals. Exports to the US, China and South Korea increased, while shipments to Indonesia declined.
This data points to resilient external demand, although the strength remains heavily concentrated in electronics and specific non-electronic categories.
Looking at Asian currencies, USD/SGD is trading at more than a two-week high on broad dollar strength, while EUR/SGD is trading at more than a one-month low.
USD/SGD is trading about 1.8% above the 1.2586 low last seen on January 28. The 21-day EMA at 1.2748 and the 50-day EMA at 1.2756 mark the next resistance levels.
USD/SGD is, however, trading at the top end of the one-month range.
Weak economic data sees Chinese yuan turn from highs
In April, China’s retail sales grew by just 0.2% compared to last year. This result fell far short of the expected 2% and marked the weakest reading since December 2022. Industrial production grew by 4.1%, missing the 6% forecast and recording the slowest growth rate in almost three years.
Between January and April, fixed asset investment shrank by 1.6%, a significant miss compared to expectations that it would hold steady. Year-to-date, property investment plunged 13.7%, exceeding the expected 11.5% decline.
These numbers highlight China’s economic vulnerability. Strong exports only partially offset weak domestic demand and global challenges. Policymakers appear to be waiting rather than launching major stimulus measures.
Meanwhile, USD/CNH sits just 0.5% above the recent low of 6.7816 seen on May 14. For USD/CNH to build upward momentum, the pair needs to break above the 21-day EMA at 6.8173 before testing the 50-day EMA at 6.8458.
AUD/CNH fell to a one-month low.
Aussie, kiwi rebound from lows, but still down over last week
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 18 – 23 May
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
