USD lower as bond market moves reverberate
The US dollar was down sharply last week as markets reacted to US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s decision to double liquidity buybacks to $4bn from $2bn. The move was small in size but large in signalling, as policymakers are increasingly unwilling to tolerate higher borrowing costs.
The US dollar saw its biggest weekly drop since late July, with the biggest losses against the safe-haven Swiss franc. The USD index fell to three-month lows.
On Friday, the US dollar continued to lose ground.
The AUD/USD gained 0.8% to reach its highest level since 2 June, with the pair now nearing key resistance at 0.7200.
The NZD/USD gained 0.6% to near key resistance at 0.6000. In Asia, USD/JPY fell 0.1%, USD/CNH lost 0.1%, while USD/SGD lost 0.2%.
Japan growth surge
Japan’s private sector grew at its fastest pace in six months in August, with the S&P Global Flash Composite PMI rising to 53.4 from 52.7. Stronger demand supported activity, while business confidence climbed to its highest level since February. Manufacturing remained the key driver of growth, with the PMI increasing to 55.1 from 54.5 as domestic sales and overseas demand recorded their strongest expansion since early 2018, supported by semiconductor and AI-related industries.
The Services PMI also improved to 52.3 from 51.2. Input cost pressures eased to a five-month low, although businesses continued to raise prices amid higher labour costs and a weaker yen.
However, USD/JPY has fallen about 3% from its 23 July peak of 163.99. First resistance stands at the 21-day EMA (159.63), followed by the 50-day EMA (160.19).
Meanwhile, SGD/JPY, EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY have climbed to three-week highs, underscoring relative yen weakness.
Inflation dominates week ahead
The final week of August is relatively quiet, with price data taking centre stage across major economies. Singapore CPI opens Monday, followed by Australian monthly CPI on Wednesday, US PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, on Wednesday, and Tokyo CPI on Friday. These readings will be crucial for gauging price pressures as central banks maintain their vigilant stance.
Several key growth metrics are scheduled, with the US releasing its second reading of Q2 GDP on Wednesday, complemented by durable goods orders offering insight into business investment trends. Germany caps its own Q2 GDP final print on Tuesday. The timing could provide important context for month-end positioning.
While no major central bank rate decisions are scheduled, Wednesday’s US PCE report and Friday’s remarks from Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium will also be in focus. Any deviation from the 3.6% headline consensus could trigger volatility across the US dollar and broader Asian currency markets.
Liquidity typically thins into month-end, which could amplify moves in currency pairs, particularly those involving the US dollar, as participants square positions ahead of the September turn.
Aussie, kiwi at highs
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 24 – 29 August
All times are in AEST
Have a question? [email protected]
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
