Tech stocks lead losses
The US dollar fell for a second straight day, ending the week lower as concerns around US technology stocks weighed on sentiment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted its worst weekly performance since April’s tariff-driven selloff.
Adding to the pressure, consumer confidence dropped sharply. The University of Michigan’s preliminary index fell to a three-year low, with worries about AI-related job losses and a potential government shutdown dampening outlooks.
The weaker greenback helped lift the Australian dollar, with AUD/USD rising 0.2% on Friday as the pair bounced off ten-week lows.
The New Zealand dollar didn’t share in the gains, slipping to a seven-month low.
In Asia, the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen both declined against the US dollar, while the Singapore dollar strengthened.
Fed officials push back on more cuts as inflation stays sticky
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem cautioned that the central bank must proceed carefully to keep inflation under control. He described current policy as “somewhere between modestly restrictive and neutral,” noting that while risks to the labour market persist, recent rate cuts offer some support.
His remarks echoed those of Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who said she sees little justification for another cut in December. Inflation, she argued, remains the bigger concern. Hammack described current rates as “barely restrictive.”
In Asia-Pacific currency markets, USD/SGD edged lower but remains above the key 1.3000 level. Support is seen near the 21-day EMA at 1.2995 and the 100-day EMA at 1.2942, where US dollar buyers may look to step in.
Inflation and growth data to guide FX markets
The week beginning Monday, November 10, brings a wave of inflation data that will shape FX market direction.
US CPI (Friday) is expected to hold steady at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, with core CPI at 0.2% m/m and 3.0% y/y—supporting expectations for a patient Fed.
In Europe, Germany’s final October CPI (Wednesday) should confirm subdued price growth at 0.3% m/m and 2.3% y/y.
UK jobs data (Tuesday) will offer an early look at wage and employment trends, followed by Q3 GDP on Thursday. Australia’s October employment report (Thursday) is forecast to show a 19,000 job gain and a steady 4.4% unemployment rate. Japan’s PPI is expected to confirm modest cost pressures.
German ZEW expectations (Tuesday) are forecast to rise to 42, suggesting cautious optimism. Eurozone industrial production is due Thursday.
China’s retail sales and industrial production (Friday) will provide further insight into the region’s recovery momentum.
Greenback lower for second day
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 10 – 15 November
