USD lower as markets wait on vote
The US dollar fell while European FX outperformed after the US Senate passed a deal that could soon end the US government’s 42-day shutdown.
The House of Representatives won’t vote on the deal until Wednesday (US time) due to the Veterans’ Day holiday.
European FX gained, led by the Swiss franc, which rose on optimism over a potential US trade deal that could slash tariffs on Swiss goods from a steep 39%. USD/CHF fell 0.6%.
The euro also advanced, while the pound struggled following a disappointing employment report.
The Aussie underperformed, with AUD/USD down 0.1% as it retreated from yesterday’s one-week high. In Asia, USD/CNH was steady, while USD/SGD slipped 0.1%.
Kiwi drifts as inflation outlook holds steady
New Zealand’s two-year inflation expectations remained firm at 2.28% in the RBNZ’s latest quarterly survey, comfortably within the central bank’s 1–3% target range.
Most respondents anticipate a rate cut this quarter, in line with the RBNZ’s view that monetary policy takes around two years to influence prices.
Short-term expectations edged up to 2.39% from 2.37%, but that’s unlikely to deter further easing aimed at supporting growth.
NZD/USD remains in a descending price channel. A breakout would signal a shift toward positive momentum.
Resistance levels are at the 21-day EMA of 0.5707, followed by the 50-day EMA of 0.5772.
Yen hits new lows despite Japan’s trade surplus
Japan posted a record current account surplus of ¥17.51 trillion in the first half of fiscal 2025, up 14.1% year-on-year.
The shift came as goods trade moved from deficit to surplus, according to preliminary finance ministry data. Exports rose 0.6% to ¥52.66 trillion, while imports fell 3.8% to ¥52.61 trillion.
USD/JPY is trading at a nine-month high. Short-term support levels are at the 21-day EMA of 152.76 and the 50-day EMA of 151.03.
The yen is weaker across other markets, with AUD/JPY near 2025 highs.
Greenback drifts
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 10 – 15 November
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
