USD steadies as markets await key inflation data
The dollar index steadies at 97.65 as traders consolidated positions ahead of next week’s critical US CPI and PPI releases.
Weekly jobless claims showed stable labor market conditions, driving front-end US yields higher and flattening curves. One Fed official noted that June CPI and PPI data could begin showing first signs of tariff impact, while another suggested the Fed should look through tariff price shocks and argued for rate cuts starting in July – acknowledging this view is out-of-consensus with the broader FOMC.
US equities consolidated with the S&P 500 ending 0.30% higher at 6280. Tech stocks lagged in price action, with the Nasdaq 100 consolidating around 20630.
EUR/USD remained choppy around 1.1700 as Euro Area tariffs were not yet announced. Brazil’s President pledged retaliation if the US moves forward with 50% tariff threats.
USD/JPY improved from 146.80 daily highs to 146.20 by NY close, with tactical price action dominating ahead of Japan’s election later this month. Focus will return to tariff negotiations ahead of the August 1 implementation deadline.
Fed’s Daly signals rate cuts as inflation cools
San Francisco Fed President, Mary Daly says the US is edging closer to price stability. Although she isn’t a voting member this year, Daly sees inflation trending toward 2% and expects two rate cuts by year-end.
Looking at USD/SGD, the pair continues to hover near its 21-day EMA resistance of 1.2799. If momentum builds, the next key resistance levels to overcome include 50-day EMA of 1.2886 and 200-day EMA of 1.3162.
Dollar buyers may look to take advantage.
RBA opens up as Aussie rallies
Australia’s central bank is lifting the veil. In a joint move with Treasurer Jim Chalmers, the RBA board will now reveal its votes each year—without naming names—and take part in at least one public event.
This week marked the first reveal: a 6–3 vote surprised markets by holding the cash rate steady at 3.85%. The board also pledged to consult outside experts for fresh insight and to explain its thinking when inflation or employment veers off track.
AUD/USD has surged to the top end of 30-day trading range, where AUD sellers may look to take advantage. The next key support levels for the pair include 21-day ENMA of 0.6533, and the 50-day EMA of 0.6485.
Aussie up on risk-on mode
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 7 – 12 July
All times AEST
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
