Brent crude back above USD 100 per barrel
Oil was higher in early Monday trading after US President Donald Trump said Iran’s response to the US peace plan was “totally unacceptable”.
Both Brent crude and WTI jumped about 3.0% this morning on the headline.
The Aussie and kiwi both slipped, with AUD/USD down 0.1% and NZD/USD down 0.2%.
In Asia, USD/JPY climbed 0.2%, USD/CNH was flat and USD/SGD gained 0.1%.
On Friday, the US dollar was not helped by a stronger jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000, well above the 65,000 consensus forecast, marking the first back‑to‑back monthly job gains in a year. Looking ahead, it is a big political week. The Australian Federal budget is due on Tuesday, while President Trump meets Chinese President Xi on Thursday and Friday.
Aussie supported by oil
Oil prices were already higher on Friday as fresh clashes between US and Iranian forces raised new fears of supply disruptions. Brent briefly pushed above USD 103 a barrel after strikes hit Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz.
While officials talked up calm and diplomacy, the key shipping route remains effectively shut, keeping energy prices elevated amid ongoing conflict concerns.
This backdrop continues to influence risk‑sensitive AUD/USD. The pair now trades about 1% below its 6 May high of 0.7278. Even so, it remains near the top of its six‑month, one‑year, two‑year and three‑year ranges.
On the downside, AUD/USD may find initial support at the 21‑day exponential moving average near 0.7154. If losses extend, the 50‑day average at 0.7084 offers the next safety net. On the upside, 0.7278 remains the key level to clear.
US CPI and Australian wages in focus this week
China inflation data opens the week. Monday’s April CPI and PPI releases (consensus 0.80% and 1.80% YoY, respectively) set the tone for APAC sentiment, with markets watching for signs that the deflationary overhang in producer prices is easing.
Tuesday’s April US CPI — consensus 3.80% headline and 2.70% core YoY — is the dominant risk event of the week. Any upside surprise would reinforce a Fed‑on‑hold narrative and put pressure on rate‑sensitive APAC currency pairs. Australian NAB business surveys on the same day provide a local read on conditions.
Wednesday brings Australia’s Q1 Wage Price Index alongside Eurozone Q1 GDP. US PPI rounds out the day, with headline YoY last at 4.00%, offering a read on upstream price pressures.
Thursday shifts focus to consumption and growth. US Retail Sales (consensus +0.40% MoM) and initial jobless claims headline a busy session, with preliminary UK Q1 GDP adding a cross‑asset dimension.
Japan PPI closes the week. Friday’s April print — last at 2.60% YoY — rounds out the inflation narrative and is worth watching for JPY positioning heading into the weekend.
Aussie remains near highs despite early Monday weakness
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 11 – 15 May
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
