USD gains ahead of jobs number
The US dollar recovered overnight, supported by a broader risk‑off tone as US sharemarkets moved lower. The move followed comments from US President Donald Trump that he plans to restart a program escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
AUD/USD fell 0.4%, while NZD/USD lost 0.3%.
Looking ahead, attention turns to tonight’s US non‑farm payrolls report, due at 10.30pm AEST. There is a risk of a weaker payrolls outcome, with consensus expecting a gain of 65k. Hiring uncertainty and shifting immigration trends could also push the unemployment rate higher, from 4.3% to 4.4%.
Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller, have noted that weak or even negative payrolls prints are becoming less unusual as labour force growth flattens.
Yen pairs lower as BoJ minutes flag faster hikes
The Bank of Japan’s March 18–19 meeting minutes struck a hawkish tone. Several board members saw scope to raise rates if the Iran conflict‑driven energy shock persists and feeds through to underlying inflation.
One member argued for rate hikes at shorter intervals, while another favoured acting decisively if the economy holds up. The BoJ kept rates at 0.75% in both March and April, although last month’s vote leaned more hawkish.
Markets are now pricing a 91% probability of a rate hike in July.
In FX, USD/JPY is holding above 156.00, down around 3% from its 30 April high of 160.72. Resistance is seen at the 100‑day moving average near 157.12, followed by the 50‑day at 158.17. Key support sits at the psychological 155.00 level.
Elsewhere, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and SGD/JPY all extended losses that began after last week’s BoJ intervention.
USD/SGD rebounds from two‑month lows
USD gains were also evident across Asia. USD/SGD rose 0.1% as it rebounded from recent two‑month lows.
The next resistance levels sit at the 21‑day moving average at 1.2745 and the 50‑day at 1.2759, a zone likely to attract attention from USD buyers.
Elsewhere, EUR/SGD slipped to a more than three‑week low, while USD/SGD is trading around 0.7% above its 28 January trough of 1.2586.
USD stages comeback ahead of jobs data
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 4 – 9 May
Have a question? [email protected]
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
