All eyes on Warsh
Financial markets are approaching a new era, with the first Federal Reserve decision led by new chair Kevin Warsh due tomorrow morning.
Warsh is expected to keep rates on hold, but all eyes will be on the post-decision press conference.
The Fed decision is due at 4am, with the press conference at 4.30am (AEST).
The US dollar was mostly lower ahead of the decision, with the US dollar index drifting toward two-week lows.
In Asia, USD/JPY edged higher after the Bank of Japan’s rate hike. For more, see below.
USD/SGD slipped 0.1%, finding support near the 50-day EMA at 1.2794, with the 100-day EMA just below at 1.2793.
USD/CNH held steady at three-year lows.
RBA stands pat, keeps the door open to more hikes
The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% in a unanimous decision. The statement carried a slightly firm tone, signalling policymakers could still lift rates if needed.
The Aussie eased, with AUD/USD down 0.1%.
The RBA said the economy is slowing as expected and that policy is well placed to respond. It restated its goals — stable prices and full employment — and made clear it will act as required, including raising the cash rate again if needed.
On the charts, AUD/USD is trading about 3% below its 6 May high of 0.7278. Near-term resistance is at the 21-day EMA (0.7099), followed by the 50-day EMA (0.7105) if momentum strengthens. On the downside, the 100-day EMA (0.7040) remains key support.
Across the Tasman, NZD/USD rose 0.5% ahead of tomorrow’s March-quarter GDP release.
USD/JPY steady near highs as BoJ lifts rates to a 31-year high
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 1%—the highest since 1995—in a 7–1 vote. The move signals a clear shift away from ultra-loose policy as price pressures persist and energy costs remain elevated following recent Middle East tensions.
With Governor Kazuo Ueda on medical leave, attention turns to Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida’s remarks for guidance. The key question is whether rising business costs will flow more broadly into consumer prices, shaping the path of future rate moves.
USD/JPY continues to hold above 160 following the hike, sitting about 0.3% below its 30 April high of 160.72.
Elsewhere, SGD/JPY is trading near one-month highs and remains close to long-term peaks.
Greenback eases into Fed decision
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 15 – 19 June
Have a question? [email protected]
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
