Aussie, kiwi recover as greenback falls
The US dollar turned sharply lower from 18-month highs last week as markets sold off AI-related stocks and US bond yields fell.
The Nasdaq recorded its biggest weekly decline since April 2025.
AUD/USD recovered after a difficult week, rebounding from three-month lows. That said, the technical picture remains negative, with the 8-day and 21-day moving averages pointing lower, suggesting rallies may remain limited.
The kiwi led the recovery, gaining 0.5% on Friday as major support at 0.5600 continued to act as a barrier to further selling.
USD lower in Asia as earlier gains reverse
US dollar weakness saw USD/JPY fall from one-month highs.
USD/CNH largely ignored the greenback’s broader rally and subsequently fell back to fresh three-year lows as the US dollar reversed later in the week. The technical picture continues to favour CNH, with the 8-day and 21-day moving averages for USD/CNH pointing lower.
USD/SGD’s post-MAS gains were also short-lived, with the pair reversing from two-month highs to one-week lows by the end of the week.
China data and NZ CPI in focus
Around the region, China’s major monthly data releases on Monday will be the highlight, including September-quarter GDP, industrial production and retail sales. China’s loan prime rates are due on Tuesday.
New Zealand CPI will be a key focus on Thursday.
In Europe, the UK’s September inflation report will be closely watched. Markets are pricing a high probability of another rate hike, although Bank Rate at 3.75% is already restrictive, raising questions about how much further the Bank of England can tighten.
A raft of S&P PMI surveys across the major economies is also due this week. Business activity has remained relatively resilient despite geopolitical uncertainty, although France’s fiscal problems remain a growing risk to European sentiment.
Kiwi leads rebound
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 19 – 24 October
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
