Data fog clouds Fed outlook
FOMC December rate cut odds dipped to 50/50 as policymakers played down imminent easing and uncertainty over US data releases persisted. The BLS has yet to confirm when official data will resume, with the October jobs report set to miss the unemployment rate due to incomplete household survey data. September NFP is expected to be released promptly, but further delays are likely for other key releases.
The USD came under pressure as USD/JPY failed to break 155 for a third time overnight, while EUR/USD renewed topside momentum (1.1629 at time of print).
China’s October retail sales are expected to remain subdued at 2.8% YoY, with industrial production likely dipping to 5.5% YoY on fewer working days and softer exports. New credit data missed expectations, suggesting earlier policy efforts have yet to filter through. No further rate or RRR cuts are expected this year.
Aussie reverses gains as jobs crush forecasts
Australia’s job market roared back last month, reversing the recent rise in unemployment. Headline employment surged by 42.2k—more than double expectations of 20k. Full-time roles led the charge with a 55.3k gain, while part-time jobs fell by 13.1k.
The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, beating forecasts of 4.4% and improving on last month’s 4.5%. RBA Governor Bullock previously noted the bank would focus on employment trends rather than single data points. This strong print likely keeps the RBA on pause through Q1 next year, barring a sharp downturn in 2026.
AUD/USD pulled back overnight. Key support sits at the 100-day moving average of 0.6520, with 0.6500 as the next psychological level.
Fed’s Collins urges patience
Boston Fed President Susan Collins signaled a cautious stance on rate cuts, warning that job market risks have grown since summer. She sees a high bar for easing anytime soon, arguing that more cuts could stall progress on inflation. For now, she supports holding rates steady “for some time.”
In Asia, USD/CNH slipped to a 12-month low, dipping below the 7.100 mark. It’s now just 0.2% above the recent low of 7.0851 from September 17. The next resistance level sits at the 21-day moving average of 7.1185.
Aussie reverses gains post strong jobs data
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 10 – 15 November
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
