US equities hit fresh highs as retail resilience shines
US equities are making fresh highs with Russell leading gains, after strong US retail sales and low weekly jobless claims signaled a solid economy. June retail sales control group overshot consensus estimates by 0.2pp. The US consumer remains healthy, but consumption growth has slowed. Continuing claims moved sideways, and initial jobless claims came in low at 221k.
Fed officials continue to show a split committee. One official sounded more dovish, saying that we “might get more muted tariff impact than we thought”, and they “haven’t seen evidence of tariff inflation spillover”. Hawks have continued to state that “larger tariff impacts” could still be coming. July Meeting and Jackson Hole will be critical consensus-building events.
The US Commerce Department is imposing 93.5% duties on Chinese imports of graphite. A final ruling should be announced by Dec. 5, the Commerce Department said in a preliminary determination that affirmed the anti-dumping duties. It’s another reminder that there are two-way risks for China/US trade, despite more positive headlines that the tariff truce agreed on May 12 for three months could be extended.
The DXY Index rallied 0.4% and close at 98.73 overnight. AUD/USD fell 0.6% and NZD/USD down 0.25%. USD/SGD gains 0.3% whilst USD/CNH was flat.
Aussie slips as jobless rate climbs
Australia’s job market showed fresh signs of strain in June, with unemployment rising to 4.3%—the highest since November 2021. That’s above expectations for a steady 4.1%, and well below the 20K job gain forecast, with only a modest 2K increase.
Full-time jobs dropped by 38K, while part-time roles rose by 40K. Total hours worked fell 0.9%, reversing May’s 1.4% gain. The trend unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.2% after holding steady at 4.1% for three months.
This weaker-than-expected report, combined with Thursday’s dip in inflation expectations, strengthens the case for a 25-point rate cut from the Reserve Bank next month.
In FX markets, AUD/USD is hovering just above its 30-day average. It’s currently sitting on the 50-day EMA at 0.6490. The next key resistance for the pair is at 21-day EMA of 0.6524. Conversely, the next key support is at 100-day EMA of 0.6447.
USD/CNH edges higher amid EU-China trade reset
EU Trade Commissioner Maros Šefčovič said Monday the bloc aims to “rebalance” its trade and investment ties with China to ensure fair competition. His remarks come just ahead of a high-level EU visit to China on July 24–25, marking 50 years of diplomatic relations.
The EU is pushing for a reliable system to secure rare earth shipments from China—an issue gaining urgency as global supply chains tighten. Šefčovič’s comments are expected to strengthen the EU’s hand in ongoing tariff talks with the US.
Earlier this month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for a “clear-eyed assessment” of the EU-China relationship, signaling a tougher tone from Brussels.
Meanwhile, USD/CNH is climbing. It’s trading above its 21-day moving average of 7.1787, with eyes on the next resistance levels at 50-day EMA of 7.1929 and the key 7.2000 mark. Dollar buyers may see this as a window of opportunity.
Aussie corrects as the jobless rate climbs
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 14 – 19 July
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
