Aussie leads gains ahead of RBA
The Australian dollar ended last week stronger across markets, with the Aussie at recent highs versus the US dollar, euro, and Chinese yuan.
The Aussie has gained ahead of tomorrow’s Reserve Bank of Australia decision, where the central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold.
AUD/USD reached a three-month high on Friday, while AUD/EUR hit a six-month high. The Aussie also climbed to highs against the Chinese yuan, Singapore dollar, and Indian rupee.
The NZD was also stronger on Friday, with NZD/USD at its highest level since 29 October.
Greenback weaker as hiring slows
The US dollar was mostly lower in Asia on Friday.
US job cuts dropped 53% in November to 71,321 from October, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
That’s still 24% higher than the 57,727 cuts announced a year ago.
Layoff plans fell last month, which is a positive sign, but November job cuts have topped 70,000 only twice since 2008 — in 2022 and 2008.
Hiring plans fell 35% from last year, marking the lowest level since 2010 and pointing to a cooling labor market.
In Asia, the US dollar remains weak against the Singapore dollar, with USD/SGD trading below 1.3000. The next resistance lies at the 21-day EMA of 1.2990.
USD/CNH eased lower after its jump from one-year lows on Thursday.
RBA, Fed, BoC key this week
The week starting December 8 features a packed calendar, with markets closely watching central bank meetings and inflation prints for direction.
The FOMC rate decision (Dec 11) is the main event, with consensus expecting a 25 bps cut. Any dovish tilt or updated projections could spark USD volatility.
The RBA is set to keep rates steady at 3.60% on Dec 9, while the Bank of Canada also meets, with no change expected.
China’s November trade balance (Dec 8) and inflation (Dec 10) will be scrutinized for signs of stabilization, as CPI is forecast to edge up to 0.7% y/y.
US PPI (Dec 8–20) and UK monthly GDP (Dec 12) will offer further clues on global growth momentum.
Australia’s November jobs report (Dec 11) is expected to show an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.4%.
With multiple G10 central banks in play and key data releases, FX markets may see heightened volatility, especially in USD, AUD, and CAD pairs.
Watch for outsized moves if central banks surprise or if inflation data deviates from expectations.
Aussie leads ahead of RBA
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 8 – 12 Dec
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
