Aussie lower as peace talks stall
The Aussie dollar led global markets sharply lower after news that peace talks between the US and Iran had failed.
The outlook darkened further after US President Donald Trump said he would block the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil jumped 7.0% at the open of Monday trading, while US stock market futures fell 1.0%.
In currencies, both AUD/USD and NZD/USD slid 0.6%. The US dollar strengthened, with USD/CNH up 0.3% and USD/SGD up 0.4%.
Kiwi best last week despite confidence wobbles at home
The New Zealand dollar took centre stage last week, rising about 2.5% in the week of 6 April as global risk sentiment improved following the US–Iran ceasefire.
That rally made NZD/USD the strongest performer among major G10 peers, drawing attention away from softer domestic data. New Zealand’s manufacturing sector lost some momentum in March, but the currency told a different story.
The BusinessNZ PMI slipped to a four‑month low of 53.2, still signalling expansion, albeit with less energy. Orders continued to flow, supporting output and hiring, but slower deliveries and rising inventories pointed to growing caution. Higher energy costs also weighed on business confidence.
Near‑term support for NZD/USD sits at the 21‑day EMA around 0.5804. On the upside, resistance is seen at the psychological 0.5900 level, followed by 0.6000.
Chinese news and inflation data in focus this week
The week beginning Monday, 13 April brings a busy calendar for FX markets, with central bank signals and growth data in focus.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s policy statement on Tuesday (10:00 AEST), alongside Singapore’s Q1 GDP, will help set the tone for Asian currencies. China’s March trade balance (Tuesday) and Q1 GDP release (Thursday, 12:00 AEST) will be closely watched for signs of recovery, with consensus growth at 4.8% y/y.
Australian labour market data on Thursday (11:30 AEST) is another key event, with the unemployment rate last recorded at 4.3%.
US producer price inflation (Tuesday, 22:30 AEST) and Eurozone CPI (Thursday, 19:00 AEST) will be important for global risk sentiment as markets reassess the outlook for Fed and ECB policy. The Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday (04:00 AEST) may offer further insight into US economic conditions.
French CPI (Wednesday) and China’s retail sales (Thursday) round out the week’s inflation and consumption themes.
With major central bank signals and key growth data due, FX volatility may pick up. US and China releases are likely to be pivotal for broader risk appetite and currency direction this week.
USD stages comeback after Iran talks stall
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 19 – 17 April
All times AEST
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
