US dollar stronger after US jobs beat
The US dollar was mostly stronger while the Aussie paused at four-month highs after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report on Friday.
US payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, beating the 55,000 forecast, while prior months were revised up by 55,000. Unemployment held at 4.1% and wage growth remained firm.
The report raised the chance of a September Federal Reserve hike above 60%, with Wednesday’s US CPI report now decisive for the Fed’s next move.
The US dollar was mostly higher after the jobs report, with the US dollar index up 0.3% as it climbed from two-week lows.
Safe-haven currencies posted the biggest losses, with USD/JPY and USD/CHF both up 0.3%.
EUR/USD fell 0.1%, while GBP/USD ended unchanged.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD both ended broadly flat.
Asian currencies bucked the trend, with USD/CNH and USD/SGD both down 0.1%.
Aussie data points to higher rates
We now expect the RBA’s next rate hike to come in September, with speeches from Andrew Hauser and Sarah Hunter this week likely to reinforce a firm policy stance. The risk now leans towards two 25bp rate increases rather than no move at all.
This shift follows stronger-than-expected July inflation, a better-than-forecast Q2 GDP reading, and a surprise jump in household spending. Consumer spending accelerated to a cycle high of 7% y/y in July despite declining home prices. The broader growth outlook also remains upbeat, supported by momentum from AI-related investment and stronger global trade activity.
Initial support for AUD/USD is located at the 21-day EMA of 0.7134, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.7084. On the upside, key resistance is at 0.7250.
US inflation key, ECB in focus
China leads with CPI and PPI on Wednesday before the marquee US CPI print lands on Friday alongside core CPI, the key gauge for Fed timing. Japan’s PPI on Friday rounds out the inflation picture.
The ECB deposit rate decision on Thursday is the sole major policy event, with markets braced for any shift in guidance. Growth data bookends the week, with euro area and Japanese Q2 GDP revisions on Monday and Tuesday testing the recovery narrative, while New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI on Friday offers a fresh read on activity.
Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence and NAB business surveys land on Tuesday, with China’s trade balance the same day framing external demand. Japanese cash earnings and current account data add to the Tuesday load, keeping yen crosses active.
Thursday brings US jobless claims and PPI, offering a preview of Friday’s CPI report. The University of Michigan sentiment survey closes the week, capping a data-heavy stretch that should keep the dollar and Asian currencies reactive into the weekend.
Kiwi plunges after RBNZ
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 7 to 12 September
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
