USD surges as rate-cut hopes fade
The US dollar jumped overnight after a delay to the September jobs report dampened expectations for near-term rate cuts.
Markets had anticipated the long-awaited non-farm payrolls release might reveal a softer labor market, but the extended delay means the Fed will not have this data available before its next meeting.
Rate cut hopes were further dashed after minutes from the Federal Reserve showed that “many” officials opposed a December cut.
The USD index climbed toward its highest level since May.
The AUD/USD slipped 0.5%, while NZD/USD dropped 1.0%.
In Asia, USD/JPY surged 1.1%, USD/CNH edged up 0.1%, and USD/SGD gained 0.4%.
Kiwi hits seven-month low as producer costs cool further
Producer prices in New Zealand slowed sharply in Q3, easing cost pressures for manufacturers and consumer goods firms.
Input prices rose just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, well below forecasts of 0.9% and last quarter’s 0.6%. Output prices held steady at 0.6%, missing expectations and signaling weaker pricing power.
NZD/USD fell after testing the top of a descending channel and now trades at its lowest level since April.
The next support is near 0.5500, while any rebound is likely capped by resistance at the 21-day moving average (0.5686), followed by the 50-day (0.5748).
Yen drifts as BoJ rate hike likely pushed to March
Japan may delay its next rate hike until March, according to Goushi Kataoka, an advisor to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. He told Bloomberg the timing depends on fiscal stimulus boosting domestic demand.
Kataoka expects a ¥20 trillion supplementary budget this year, far larger than last year’s ¥13.9 trillion, to drive consumption.
We anticipate the next hike could come in April 2026. The yen trades about 2% below its recent peak of 158.87 (Jan 10, 2025). Key support sits at the 21-day moving average.
USD nears May highs
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 17 – 22 November
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
