Aussie highest since February 2023
The US dollar fell sharply this morning, hitting the lowest level since early 2022, after US President Donald Trump said he was not concerned by its recent falls.
President Trump also said the US dollar is “seeking its own level” and noted that the China and Japan want to devalue their currencies.
The comments added to the selling pressure in the US dollar with the USD index now down 3.1% since last Friday’s intervention warning from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan.
The Aussie was stronger, with the AUD/USD up 1.3% to the best level since February 2023.
The NZD/USD, up 1.1%, moved to the best level since July 2025.
The USD/SGD fell 0.8% to the lowest level since 2014. The USD/CNH hit three-year lows.
Looking forward, Australian CPI, due at 11.30am and tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision, at 6.00am, will likely continue the volatility.
RBA risks grow as Australian business confidence holds firm
Business confidence in Australia strengthened in December, with the National Australia Bank’s index rising to +3 from a revised +2 in November.
Capacity use slipped slightly to 83.2% from 83.5% but remained well above the long-run average of 81.4%, pointing to a tight labour market.
Unemployment fell to 4.1% and underutilisation dropped sharply, reinforcing signs of labour market pressure.
That adds weight to inflation risks, keeping the Reserve Bank of Australia focused on whether conditions ease.
All eyes now turn to Wednesday’s Q4 CPI release.
China’s industrial profits bounce back after slump
China’s industrial profits climbed 5.3% year-on-year in December, reversing a 13.1% drop the month before and marking the first gain in three months.
For the full year, profits edged up 0.6%, compared with 0.1% in 2024.
A statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics cautioned that challenges remain, citing global headwinds and the ongoing push for industrial transformation and upgrading.
USDCNH is holding just above the 6.9500 level, with charts pointing to potential upside.
The next resistance sits near the 21-day EMA at 6.9738, followed by the 50-day EMA at 7.012.
Aussie jumps to three-year highs
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 26 – 31 Jan
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
