USD gains across FX markets
Global markets weakened on Monday, with US shares down on worries the US Federal Reserve is now less likely to cut interest rates.
In FX markets, currencies linked to global growth like the Aussie and Kiwi led FX losses.
The US Dow Jones index fell for a third consecutive session, with the market down 1.2% overnight and 4.2% since last Thursday.
In FX markets, the Aussie led losses, with the AUD/USD down 0.7% as it returned to levels just above the major three-month lows around 0.6450/40. The key risk for the Aussie remains a potential break below this support zone, with next support seen at 0.6400.
The NZD/USD was down 0.5% as it turned from two-week highs and confirms the pair remains stuck in the downtrend seen since August.
In other markets, the euro, GBP, and Japanese yen were all weaker overnight.
Recent commentary from the Federal Reserve suggests that worries about higher inflation mean the US central bank is less likely to cut interest rates. Market pricing for a December cut has fallen from 63% one week ago to 42% now (source: Bloomberg).
USD/CNH rebounds on Trump’s new tariff threat
President Donald Trump said he’s fine with a Senate bill that would slap steep tariffs—up to 500%—on imports from countries doing business with Russia.
The proposal targets nations that buy Russian energy and don’t actively support Ukraine, with China and India in the crosshairs. Trump added that Iran could be next, according to Bloomberg.
The bill could stir fresh FX volatility, just as we warned earlier.
USD/CNH is climbing, now 0.3% above its September 17 low of 7.0851. Key resistance levels sit at the 21-day EMA of 7.1175, followed by the 50-day EMA of 7.1278.
Singapore export surge no help as SGD slips
Singapore’s exports just posted their biggest jump in nearly four years. In October, non-oil shipments surged 22.2% from a year ago—triple the pace analysts expected. Electronics led the charge, up 33.2% thanks to strong demand for personal computers and integrated circuits. Non-electronic goods rose 18.8%, driven by gold and pharmaceuticals.
Most of Singapore’s top trading partners boosted purchases, but exports to the US dropped 12.5%, likely due to tariff concerns.
The US dollar is gaining ground against the Singapore dollar, now 2.5% above its July low of 1.2698 and back above the key 1.3000 level. Support sits at the 50-day EMA of 1.2958, followed by the 100-day EMA of 1.2948.
US gains across markets
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 17 – 22 November
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
