Crude joins sell-off as gold, silver fall further
Crude oil joined the global commodity sell‑off overnight after US President Donald Trump said that US–Iran talks were continuing and he was hopeful for a deal.
Crude oil fell 4.6%.
The drop in crude added to broader commodity weakness, with gold falling another 4.6% overnight and silver losing a further 7.0%.
In FX, the USD strengthened, with the USD Index up 0.6%, fully reversing last week’s large losses.
The AUD/USD fell 0.2% ahead of today’s critical Reserve Bank of Australia decision at 2:30 pm AEDT.
The NZD/USD slipped 0.4%.
In Asia, USD/JPY gained 0.5%, while USD/SGD edged up 0.1%. The USD/CNH bucked the trend and fell 0.2%.
Australia manufacturing growth hits five-month high as RBA looms
Australia’s manufacturing sector gained momentum in January, with the S&P Global PMI rising to 52.3, up from 51.6 in December. This marks the third consecutive month of expansion and the strongest growth in five months.
Output and new orders accelerated, supported by the first rise in export demand since August and the fastest overall new‑business growth in six months. Firms increased hiring at the quickest pace since March 2023.
The combination of stronger demand, rising employment, and higher costs signals a sector firmly back in expansion, though supply bottlenecks and increasing input prices remain key risks.
With the RBA set to decide policy today (Feb 3), markets are pricing a 72% chance of a rate hike.
AUD/USD support sits at 0.6841 (21‑day EMA), followed by 0.6736 (50‑day EMA).
JPY tumbles even as BoJ warns on inflation
Bank of Japan policymakers raised concerns about rising inflation at their January meeting, warning that delaying action risks falling behind the curve.
Although the BoJ kept rates unchanged last month, its summary of opinions indicated broad support for future rate increases if economic and price forecasts hold.
Members highlighted persistent price pressures, stronger pass‑through of import costs, widening inequality from a weaker yen, and higher long‑term yields as issues requiring close monitoring. Some advocated for timely, incremental hikes—potentially every few months—to avoid falling behind, while others emphasized the need for flexible bond‑purchase operations to stabilise volatile markets.
USD/JPY has climbed to a one‑week high.
Key resistance sits at 155.73 (50‑day EMA) and 155.86 (21‑day EMA).
Dollar buyers may find opportunities at current levels.
USD gains further
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 3 – 7 Feb
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
