Shutdown deal nears
US equities extended their rally overnight with the Nasdaq up 2% and silver surging 4%, and the dollar index down 0.1% overnight, as investors grew more confident that a resolution to the government shutdown is imminent. The Senate is aiming to pass a funding bill tonight.
Rates markets were quiet into Tuesday’s US Treasury holiday.
Silver was the best performer in the complex, while gold’s rally is being met with caution as shutdown relief and producer selling may limit further upside. In energy, Russia’s Lukoil declared force majeure on oil shipments from Iraq’s West Qurna 2 field.
Fed Miran calls for 50bps cut; CNH holds firm
Fed Miran has signalled a preference for a 50bp rate cut at the December meeting. This dovish tilt stands out against a backdrop of resilient US data and keeps the market on alert for a potential shift in the Fed’s reaction function as the year draws to a close.
In Asia, the Chinese yuan (CNH) showed strength following a formal easing of US-China tensions. The Trump-Xi summit led to new agreements that helped stabilize sentiment. CNH now trades 0.5% above its recent low of 7.0851, last seen on September 17. The next key levels to watch are 21-day EMA of 7.1240 and 50-day EMA of 7.1320.
Fed Williams flags widening wealth gap as threat to US growth
New York Fed President, John Williams warned that growing inequality could undermine the US economy. In an interview with the Financial Times, he said the Fed’s December rate decision would be “a balancing act,” as inflation remains stubbornly high despite signs of resilience elsewhere.
Williams noted that while wealthier Americans benefit from rising stock prices, many lower- and middle-income households are struggling with housing costs and everyday expenses. That pressure could drag down consumer confidence and spending, weakening the broader recovery.
Looking ahead, Australia’s jobs report on Thursday will be closely watched.
The currency pair is approaching resistance at 100-day EMA of 0.6519, with the next key level at 0.6600.
Antipodeans up as dollar slips
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 10 – 15 November
Have a question? [email protected]
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
