Ceasefire optimism lifts risk
A fresh ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon—paired with positive signals on Iran negotiations—sparked a risk-on mood overnight. US Treasuries saw yields rise 1–3bps; the 10-year closed 2.8bps higher, and curves steepened.
US equities advanced, notching new highs: S&P 500 +0.3%, Dow +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.4% (its best win streak since 2009).
Initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 207k for the week ending April 11, while continuing claims edged up to 1.818 million. The Philadelphia Fed index soared to 26.7 in April, beating forecasts, with strong new orders and shipments but weaker employment. Both input and output prices climbed to highs not seen since August 2025. Industrial production slipped -0.5% in March. Former US Treasury officials called for contingency plans to buttress Treasury demand.
European bonds rallied on Middle East optimism: Bunds, BTPs, and OATs all outperformed.
UK gilts firmed, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.3% after GDP jumped +0.5% m/m in February, prompting Q1 upgrades. Political concerns lingered over diplomatic appointments.
Chinese stocks rallied after Q1 GDP printed 5%, propelling the ChiNext to an 11-year high. Malaysia will restrict social media for under-16s from June, following Australia’s lead.
The Dollar index is now at 98.22. Overnight, AUD/USD down 0.13%, USD/SGD gained 0.13%, and USD/CNH was flat.
Aussie jobs steady, AUD nudges higher
Australia’s job market showed resilience in March. Net employment rose by 17.9K, just shy of the 20K forecast, but full-time jobs bounced back strongly with a 52.5K gain, offsetting a drop in part-time roles. The jobless rate stayed at 4.3%, matching expectations, while the participation rate dipped slightly to 66.8%. These numbers suggest the labour market remains tight, supporting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s view that there’s still underlying strength, even as hiring momentum cools.
The broader risk-friendly mood also lifted the Australian dollar, pushing AUD/USD to a fresh multi‑year high near 0.7197 overnight. Markets currently see a 73% likelihood of another RBA rate increase in May. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) however, is at overbought territory, and AUD/USD could be vulnerable to correction after the recent advance. That said, the next key resistance will be the key psychological handle of 0.7200. On the downside, the next key support for AUD/USD lies at 21-day EMA of 0.7048, followed by 50-day EMA of 0.7002.
China’s economy beats forecasts
China’s economy accelerated in the first quarter, with GDP up 5% year-on-year, topping the 4.8% consensus and outpacing last quarter’s 4.5%. This solid growth should reassure policymakers and makes a policy shift at the upcoming Politburo meeting less likely. Still, the data was mixed: retail sales rose just 1.7%—well below expectations—highlighting weak domestic demand. Industrial production jumped 5.7%, beating forecasts, while fixed asset investment grew 1.7%, a touch softer than expected.
In Asia, AUD/CNH hovered near a one‑month high, while SGD/CNH traded close to a one‑week high.
USD/CNH has climbed 0.2% from its recent low of 6.8059, last seen on 14 April. The next key resistance sits at the 21-day EMA of 6.8539, followed by 50‑day EMA at 6.8858.
USD buyers may look to take advantage now.
Aussie at overbought RSI signal
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 6 – 11 April
All times AEST
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.\
