Oil tumbles, shares gain, but FX unmoved
Global equity markets moved higher and oil tumbled, but FX was more muted as markets reacted to the US–Iran peace deal.
US President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would be open by Friday.
Crude oil fell 4.8%, while the US S&P 500 gained 1.7% and the Nasdaq jumped 3.1%.
In FX, EUR/USD rose 0.2%, GBP/USD gained 0.1%, and USD/CAD was flat.
In Asia, USD/SGD and USD/CNH both declined 0.1%.
AUD/USD led gains ahead of today’s Reserve Bank of Australia decision, rising 0.4%, while NZD/USD fell 0.2%.
The RBA decision, due at 2:30 pm AEST, sees 100% probability of no change. Markets price in around 13 bps of tightening by year-end (source: Bloomberg).
Technically, AUD/USD trades about 2.8% below its 6 May peak of 0.7278. Near-term resistance sits at the 21-day EMA at 0.7103, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.7107 if momentum builds. On the downside, the 100-day EMA at 0.7040 marks key support.
Can USD strength continue post-deal?
USD strength has tracked a steady run of upbeat data, and that momentum could extend.
Conditions remain supportive — borrowing costs stay low, companies continue to grow earnings while increasing tech investment, and the labour market shows little strain.
Growth signals remain firm, economic surprise indices are turning higher, and sentiment leans toward a more assertive policy stance.
That said, the appointment of new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh adds uncertainty to the expected policy path, with around 16 bps of tightening priced by end-2026. Focus now turns to the FOMC meeting this Thursday.
BoJ hike today almost certain, according to markets, guidance drives next move
The Bank of Japan’s June decision looks firmly set ahead of today’s meeting, with about 24.5 bps of tightening priced despite a brief wobble last week.
Arrangements around Governor Ueda’s absence appear to be running smoothly, and a hike now looks effectively locked in. Focus shifts to the press conference and how officials communicate the path ahead without the governor present.
USD/JPY holds above the key 160 level, sitting about 0.3% below its 30 April high of 160.72. Support comes in at the 21-day EMA near 159.67, followed by the 50-day EMA at 159.05. Resistance stands at 160.72.
Elsewhere, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY trade at one-week highs and remain close to multi-decade highs, highlighting ongoing yen weakness against commodity-linked currencies.
Aussie in focus ahead of RBA
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 15 – 19 June
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
