USD, oil falls as Trump looks to end war
The US dollar was mostly lower as oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump said the US would pause its programme to escort stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz, while the administration stepped up efforts to bring an end to the ten-week conflict.
Crude retreated after President Trump signalled the US Iran conflict could be nearing an end, prompting markets to unwind a sizeable geopolitical risk premium.
Brent slipped back below recent highs as traders reassessed the likelihood of major supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, easing immediate inflation fears tied to energy prices.
However, with US labour data and activity indicators due later this week, USD weakness might be short-lived.
Aussie back at four-year highs after RBA hike
The Australian dollar remains one of the standout performers, sitting near four-year highs after the RBA lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, its third hike this year.
The move, backed by an 8–1 board vote, underscored the RBA’s determination to rein in stubborn inflation pressures, even as growth risks linger.
The rate increase, combined with resilient risk sentiment and a softer USD backdrop, pushed the Aussie above 72 US cents at its peak.
For now, the AUD/USD remains in a clear uptrend, with resistance seen at 0.7235.
China data in focus as markets return
Attention is turning to China as mainland markets reopen following the extended Labour Day holiday.
Investors are watching fresh activity data for clues on the durability of the early year recovery, with recent PMI and production figures pointing to improving momentum in manufacturing and technology sectors. Most notably, private-sector services PMI is due at 11.45am AEST today with China trade balance due on Friday.
Consumption trends will be closely scrutinised after the holiday period, particularly amid signs that spending is shifting toward services and experiences rather than traditional retail.
The USD/CNH fell 0.1% yesterday and remains near major support at 6.8000 at the three-year lows.
Aussie back at highs
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 4 – 9 May
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
