PPI numbers spark inflation worries
The US dollar staged a strong comeback overnight after the US producer prices index (PPI) jumped from 2.3% in June to 3.3% in July.
This was the biggest jump in wholesale prices since June 2022.
The report sparked worries about the impact of US tariffs on inflation and pushed US bond yields and the US dollar sharply higher.
Looking forward, Chinese activity numbers will be closely watched today with industrial production and retail sales due at midday AEST.
Fed’s Bostic flags rising stress
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic says signs of financial stress are climbing across income levels, even as wages rise. He pointed to a weakening labor market over the past three months and warned that tariffs could trigger deeper structural shifts.
Bostic, who isn’t a voting member this year, still expects one rate cut before year-end.
Last night’s reaction to the US producer prices number has seen the chances of a September rate hike fall from 106% on Wednesday to 90% by the end of Thursday’s trading. The greenback was higher across Asia with USD/SGD up 0.4% but USD/CNH steady
Aussie full-time jobs roar back, but AUD ends lower
Australia’s July jobs report delivered a solid rebound, just as expected. Total employment rose by 24.5k—right on target—but the real story is the surge in full-time work, up by 60.5k.
Part-time roles fell by 35.9k, suggesting a shift toward more stable employment. The jobless rate dipped to 4.2%, while the participation rate eased to 67%.
With numbers this strong, a September rate cut from the RBA looks unlikely. November remains the more realistic window for any move.
The Aussie originally gained on the jobs number but later fell as the USD jumped after the PPI numbers.
The AUD/USD fell 0.8% and NZD/USD down 1.0%.
Greenback stages comeback
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 11 – 16 August
Have a question? [email protected]
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
