USD rises despite massive jobs revision
The US dollar bounced off six-week lows overnight, gaining ground ahead of this week’s key inflation data.
The producer price index (PPI) is due Wednesday night, with last month’s reading marking the biggest jump since 2021 as tariffs began to ripple through the economy.
Tonight’s core PPI is forecast to ease from 3.7% to 3.5%. Thursday night’s consumer price index (CPI) will be pivotal ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision.
The greenback strengthened even after the largest downward jobs revision on record –911,000 fewer jobs for the year to March 2025. The news added to concerns about a weakening US labour market.
The stronger USD saw AUD/USD dip 0.1%, while NZD/USD fell 0.2%. USD/SGD and USD/CNH were both flat.
Aussie near highs as business conditions rebound
Australian business conditions improved in August, rising 2 points to reach their long-term average of 7, according to NAB’s latest survey.
Confidence, however, dropped sharply, halving to 4 points and hitting a three-month low. Still, it remains within typical ranges, consistent with the index’s usual fluctuations.
Sales held steady at 12, while profitability and hiring both doubled, reaching 4 and 6 points respectively.
The Aussie is now edging toward its highest level this year, with short-term support seen around the 21-day EMA of 0.6596 and the 50-day EMA of 0.6512.
Yen in focus as Kono calls for rate hike
LDP lawmaker Kono Taro says the Bank of Japan must raise interest rates to rein in inflation and support the yen. In an interview with Bloomberg, he warned that delays could worsen price pressures and called for the yen’s value to be “fixed.”
Kono also criticised cash handouts and opposed cutting the sales tax, arguing it would deepen Japan’s deficit. Asked about a potential run for LDP leadership, he said he’s “sleeping on it.”
Markets are watching for a possible rate hike in March 2026, but for now, the yen’s outlook remains cautious. Political shifts and policy decisions are expected to drive further volatility.
The 150.00 level remains a tough ceiling, while support is seen near the 100-day EMA of 147.13.
Aussie turns from highs
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 8 – 13 September
All times AEST
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
