Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
Markets shrug off shocks, Dollar ease
US Treasuries rallied 3-4bps overnight after the weekend’s dramatic events in Venezuela, including the capture of President Maduro.
Commodities surged: oil rose 1.8%, copper broke above $13,000, silver jumped 7%, and gold gained 3%.
US equities rallied, led by tech, defence, and energy, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up 0.7%.
Fed commentary suggested rates may be near neutral, with policymakers awaiting further data to determine the next move.
China’s services PMI edged down to 52.0 in December, signaling continued but slower expansion. The securities regulator is pushing for tougher anti-fraud laws. In Korea, leaders reaffirmed bilateral ties amid regional tensions.
Dollar index corrected slightly overnight to 98.27 at the time of writing.
Manufacturing slump weighs on USDJPY
US manufacturing activity dropped to a 14‑month low in December, sliding to 47.9 from 48.2 in November. Bloomberg consensus had expected a stronger reading of 48.4. Prices paid held steady at 58.5, just shy of the 58.7 forecast.
Dollar‑yen trades 0.9% below its recent highs of 157.89 set on 20 November 2025. The next key support lies at 21-day EMA of 156.22, followed by 50-day EMA of 155.12.
Singapore retail rebound, USDSGD tests resistance
Singapore’s retail sales jumped 6.3% in November, beating expectations of 4.9% and up from 4.4% in October. Excluding motor vehicles, sales climbed 5.8%, accelerating from 3.7% the month before.
USDSGD has corrected slightly overnight. The next key resistance lies at 21-day EMA of 1.2878, followed by 50-day EMA of 1.2915.
USD buyers may look to take advantage at current levels, as it is slightly oversold on RSI indicator.
Antipodeans firm overnight
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 5 – 10 January
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
