Oil spike drags FX markets lower
The US Federal Reserve announced its decision to keep rates on hold overnight, but the rapid rise in oil prices had a much bigger impact on markets.
Brent crude jumped 6.2% and briefly touched USD 110 per barrel after an Iranian attack on a Qatar LNG facility sparked fears of further disruption to energy supplies.
US equities sold off, with the Dow Jones down 1.6% and the tech‑heavy Nasdaq losing 1.5%.
The Aussie led losses in FX markets, with AUD/USD down 1.1%.
EUR/USD fell 0.8%, while GBP/USD was little changed. Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet tonight. In Asia, USD/JPY rose 0.5%. Bank of Japan meets today. USD/SGD gained 0.6%, while USD/CNH added 0.3%.
Kiwi at lows after GDP, confidence falls
Early today, New Zealand’s March‑quarter GDP was reported at 1.3% in annual terms, below the 1.7% forecast. The result adds to concerns about the health of the NZ economy.
Yesterday, data showed New Zealand households were more cautious in the first quarter. The Westpac–McDermott Miller confidence index fell 1.8 points to 94.7, remaining well below the neutral 100 level.
Families felt better about their finances, helped by firm commodity prices and lower mortgage rates, but rising fuel costs and a softer labour market weighed on sentiment.
Some discretionary spending has emerged, but cost pressures are building again. If fuel prices remain elevated, confidence could weaken further.
External pressures are also mounting. New Zealand’s current account deficit widened by NZD 857 million to NZD 4.6 billion in the December quarter of 2025. A larger income shortfall and weaker goods trade drove the gap, only partly offset by services. This leaves the economy more dependent on overseas funding and more sensitive to shifts in global sentiment.
NZD/USD has slipped back to key support at 0.5770. A break below this level would open the door to a move towards 0.5700.
Japan’s export slowdown weighs on the JPY
Japan’s export sector lost momentum in February. Shipments rose 4.2% from a year earlier, beating forecasts and swinging the trade balance to a JPY 57.3 billion surplus. However, growth slowed sharply from January’s 16.8% surge.
Weaker car exports and Lunar New Year distortions weighed on demand, particularly from China. Imports climbed 10.2% year‑on‑year but undershot expectations, pointing to uneven domestic demand.
While the return to surplus offers some near‑term relief, the broader picture is less encouraging. Exports to both China and the US are losing pace, and a weaker yen can only cushion the slowdown to a point.
USD/JPY is trading around 0.5% below its recent peak of 159.75, last seen on March 13.
Initial support sits near the 21‑day EMA at 157.61, followed by the 50‑day EMA at 156.62.
USD higher again as energy worries drive markets
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 16 – 20 March
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
