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ECB decision day: Markets watch for signals beyond the pause

Dollar drifts as inflation data loom. Miran inches closer to Fed seat as Aussie tests limits. Trump floats tariffs to pressure Putin as Yuan dips.

Avatar of Steven DooleyAvatar of Shier Lee Lim

Written by: Steven DooleyShier Lee Lim
The Market Insights Team

Dollar drifts as inflation data loom

US producer prices (excluding food and energy) slipped 0.1% in August, missing forecasts for a 0.3% rise.

The dollar held steady, with traders still betting on a September rate cut, with some even eyeing a 50-point move next week.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to a fresh high on Wednesday.

Markets await the August US CPI report due Thursday evening AEDT as the key catalyst for near-term direction.

The Swiss National Bank announced it will release monetary policy discussion summaries four weeks after each decision to increase transparency.

European markets remain rangebound ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision.

September 2025 chart showing USD/CNH daily developments, moving averages, and RSI

Miran inches closer to Fed seat as Aussie tests limits

Stephen Miran’s nomination for Fed Governor cleared a key hurdle on Monday, winning approval from the Senate Banking Committee.

A full Senate vote is now scheduled, potentially putting Miran in the room for next week’s FOMC meeting.

That meeting could shake up market mood, with investors watching closely for signals on rates and policy direction.

Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar broke through the 0.6600 barrier, now sitting 5% below its September 2024 peak of 0.6942.

The next key support levels are at 21-day EMA of 0.6543 and 50-day EMA of 0.6519 next, and the pair looks stretched as it nears the edge of its 60-day range.

September 2025 chart showing AUD/USD at the top end of 60-day trading range

Trump floats tariffs to pressure Putin as Yuan dips

Donald Trump is weighing new tariffs on China and India to push Russia toward peace talks, Bloomberg reports. During a meeting with top EU officials in Washington, Trump said he’d consider the move, but only if European countries join in. One source said the US is ready to match any duties Europe imposes on other nations.

Still, getting all EU members on board won’t be easy. Countries like Hungary have already blocked tougher energy sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan is hovering near an eleven-month low, with support at 7.1000 in sight.

Resistance levels are lined up at 21-day EMA of 7.1439, and 50-day EMA of 7.1633, suggesting the pair may be due for a bounce, or a break.

September 2025 chart showing USD/CNH near an eleven-month high

Aussie up on Fed cut bets and better Australian sentiment

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

11 September 2025 table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

Key global risk events

Calendar: 8  – 13 September

Key global risk events calendar: 8 – 13 September

All times AEST

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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer

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