US retails sales stall, Antipodeans ease overnight
US retail sales were flat in December, and core retail sales slipped 0.1%, both missing expectations. The employment cost index rose 0.7% in Q4, below the pace consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
US equities were mixed: S&P 500 -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.6%, while the Dow hit a fresh all-time high. Financials lagged on AI disruption fears.
The ECB signaled little concern over recent euro appreciation, while UK political risks eased as PM Starmer consolidated support.
UK retail sales rebounded in January, but a think tank warned of persistent living standard challenges for lower-income households.
Aussie and Kiwi down 0.3% and 0.2% overnight respectively.
USDSGD and USDCNH were flat.
Dollar index down for 3rd day ahead of key US employment and inflation data due this week.
Aussie sentiment dips, AUD holds above 0.70
Australia’s consumer sentiment fell 2.6% to 90.5 points in February after the RBA’s 25bp rate hike, a Westpac Banking Corp. survey showed. Despite the RBA’s rate hike, consumer home price expectations remarkably rose to a fifteen-year high, now implying price growth could boom over 10% y/y.
A separate survey from National Australia Bank showed that business conditions in January fell to 6.6, the lowest level since July last year.
AUDUSD is currently above key psychological handle of 0.7000.
The next key support lies at 21-day EMA of 0.6935, followed by 50-day EMA of 0.6808.
Dollar slide seen too small for inflation
Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the dollar would need to register a steeper fall for it to become a first-order issue that would affect consumer inflation, adding that he does not view dollar weakness as having material consequences on monetary policy so far.
He said that he thinks higher tariffs are helping to push the US onto better financial footing, predicting that economic growth will be much higher this year.
Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he’s starting to see signs that confidence in the US dollar is coming into question.
Looking at APAC FX, USDSGD is 0.5% above recent low of 1.2586, last seen on Jan 28th
The next key resistance lies at 21-day EMA of 1.2730, followed by 50-day EMA of 1.2803.
Antipodeans softer overnight
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 9 – 14 February
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
