Greenback weaker after jobs miss
The US dollar fell to a two-week low after the June non-farm payrolls data disappointed markets overnight.
The June payrolls report showed 57,000 new jobs were created, well below the forecast of 113,000. However, there was some positive news, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% from 4.3%.
The greenback tumbled, with the USD index down 0.6%, reaching its lowest level since 18 June.
The USD fell most sharply against other safe-haven currencies, with USD/JPY down 0.9% and USD/CHF down 0.7%.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD both gained 0.5%.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD were 0.4% higher.
In Asia, USD/CNH gained 0.1%, while USD/SGD climbed 0.2%.
AUD/USD attempts to break descending channel resistance
Australia’s services sector returned to growth in June, with the S&P Global Services PMI rising to 50.5 from 48.7 in May, led by stronger consumer-related activity. Higher hiring supported output growth, but demand remained soft as new orders fell for a fourth straight month and export orders declined again amid disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East. While input cost pressures eased, they remained elevated, and businesses slowed the pace of price increases to the weakest level since January. Without a pickup in demand, the recovery may struggle to gain momentum.
A sharp miss in US jobs data and concerns over potential political influence on interest rate policy pushed the US dollar lower, although regional currencies continue to move in different directions.
AUD/USD is testing its descending channel resistance while trading 5% below its May peak of 0.7278. To strengthen the upward move, AUD/USD must break above its 21-day EMA at 0.6979, followed by its 100-day EMA at 0.7016. On the downside, 0.6900 remains the next key support level.
Meanwhile, EUR/AUD is attempting to break above resistance at its 100-day EMA of 1.6542. On the downside, support is seen at the 21-day EMA of 1.6437, followed by the 50-day EMA of 1.6414.
Sterling tests one-year highs on shaky foundations
Sterling heads into the week’s end higher against G10 peers, reaching one‑year highs against the euro, Swedish krona and Canadian dollar. The pound and gilt markets continue to look through the fragile political backdrop, while UK rates, among the highest in the majors, make it costly to hold short sterling positions. A low‑volatility FX environment further discourages renewed selling of the pound.
GBP/EUR has broken above key resistance at 1.16 and briefly flirted with 1.17. The move was partly driven by short covering. A light UK data calendar has also dampened sterling’s reaction to the less hawkish recalibration from the ECB and the Fed. It is likely only a matter of time, however, before more dovish signals from the BoE begin to weigh on sterling too.
GBP/EUR’s near‑term interaction with support at 1.1650, followed by 1.16, should help gauge the strength of the breakout.
Meanwhile, GBP/USD has retraced most of the losses seen after the Fed’s hawkish 17 June meeting, moving back above the 21‑day moving average near 1.33. The 1.34 level now stands out as key resistance, with a break higher likely to challenge the broader downtrend in place since early May.
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Calendar: 29 June – 3 July
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
