Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
Commodities shine, USD holds firm
US equities surged to record highs, with the S&P 500 (+0.6%), Nasdaq (+0.7%), and Dow Jones (+1%) closing above 49,000 for the first time. Gains were led by consumer discretionary and technology sectors.
Meanwhile, silver (+5%), and gold (+1%) saw strong gains, reflecting investor interest in commodities.
China imposed export controls on Japan for items with military applications, escalating tensions. Meanwhile, Beijing is considering tightening rare-earth exports, further straining trade relations.
The US dollar held firm, supported by stable Treasury yields and mixed economic data. AUD looks ahead to today’s CPI release.
US PMI services dips, USDJPY stays elevated
The final US S&P Global Services PMI for December slipped to 52.5 from the initial 52.9. Bloomberg consensus had expected it to hold steady at 52.9.
S&P noted that tariffs and rising labor costs pushed operating expenses to their highest level since May. Companies responded by raising prices more quickly to offset the squeeze.
USDJPY is still above key psychological handle of 155, at 156.64 at the time of writing.
The next key support lies at 21-day EMA of 156.27, followed by 50-day EMA of 155.18.
Australia services growth slows, Aussie dollar holds high
Australia’s services sector expanded at its weakest pace in seven months, easing to 51.1 from 52.8 but staying above the neutral 50 line.
Despite the softer headline, new business and export demand picked up, while hiring accelerated and helped clear backlogs. Firms, however, faced rising costs, with input and output prices climbing and stoking inflation concerns.
Business sentiment improved slightly, supported by hopes of development and possible government stimulus, though confidence remained below long‑term averages. The composite PMI slipped to 51.0 from 52.6, marking the slowest growth since May, yet demand and jobs point to cautious momentum into early 2026.
AUD/USD is now at 14-month high.
Next key support at 21-day EMA of 0.6674 and 50-day EMA of 0.6622.
Aussie gains on commodities strength
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 5 – 10 January
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
