Global markets surge after Trump speech
Global markets were sharply higher as investors were relieved by news that US President Donald Trump ruled out using force to take Greenland.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Trump said: “I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force.”
Later, President Trump said he would withdraw previously announced tariffs, saying he has struck the “framework” of a future deal with NATO officials.
US shares led gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up 1.2%.
In FX, AUD/USD outperformed, up 0.7% to hit its highest level since October 2024.
NZD/USD gained 0.2%. USD/CNH fell 0.1%, while USD/SGD was flat.
Aussie helped as leading index improves; jobs due
Australia’s leading index ticked higher in December, rising to 0.42% from 0.20% in November, signalling activity just above trend over the next 3–9 months.
The improvement supports Australia’s gradual recovery into 2026, though momentum remains far weaker than the pace usually seen when readings climb above 1%.
The gain was driven mainly by stronger commodity prices—especially gold and copper—and a rebound in dwelling approvals. Other components were mixed: firmer labour market signals were offset by weaker consumer sentiment, equity performance, yield spreads, and US industrial output.
With inflation still uncertain, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates steady at its February 2 meeting.
In the meantime, today’s employment numbers, due at 11:30am, will be closely watched. The market is looking for a 20k gain after the -21.3k result in the November report.
AUD/USD has moved toward the top of its rising channel and is also trading at the high end of its six‑month range. The next support sits at the 21‑day EMA of 0.6694, followed by the 50‑day EMA of 0.6649.
China rolls out loan perks to fire up spending
China unveiled new incentives to spark investment and consumer demand, including a CNY 500bn loan guarantee facility aimed at helping private firms expand, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement.
Small and medium-sized enterprises will also benefit from a two‑year annual interest subsidy of 1.5 percentage points on qualifying loans. In addition, the ministry extended consumer loan discounts through the end of this year.
Vice Finance Minister Liao Min said at a press briefing that public spending will expand from 2025 as the government pursues a “more active” fiscal stance. He added that the budget deficit and bond issuance will stay at “necessary” levels, while more funds will be directed toward boosting consumption.
USD/CNH sits at the bottom of its Bollinger Band, pointing to oversold conditions.
The next resistance is at the 21‑day EMA of 6.9829, followed by the 50‑day EMA of 7.0221.
Aussie highest in 15 months
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 19 – 24 Jan
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
