Risk rally lifts Aussie and Kiwi as USD softens
US core inflation rose 0.3% in August and 3.1% year-on-year, matching forecasts. But a sharp rise in jobless claims—the highest in nearly four years—has strengthened expectations that the Fed may cut rates at its September 16–17 meeting to address the cooling job market.
The USD traded slightly softer as US equities hit fresh record highs.
US equities closed at new record highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both notching fresh peaks.
US Commerce Secretary provided a helpful update on the state of trade talks, noting a big deal is likely with Switzerland. South Korea’s trade deal with Taiwan is coming, but paperwork remains. India’s Russian oil purchases are under scrutiny, with authorities evaluating the impact on INR.
AUD/USD outperformed (+0.7%) in second highest in the majors, breaking resistance at 0.6636. NZD also saw gains (+0.6%), with risk sentiment buoyed by softer US data and a friendlier rates backdrop.
Euro edges up as Lagarde shrugs off inflation miss
ECB President Christine Lagarde downplayed concerns about inflation staying below the 2% target until 2027, calling it a “minimal deviation.”
The central bank now expects eurozone growth to reach 1.2% in 2025, with inflation running slightly hotter through 2025–2026 before easing to 1.9% in 2027, held back by a stronger euro.
EUR/SGD is holding above short-term 21-day EMA support at 1.5008.
The next hurdle is 1.5113, the April high, where Singapore dollar buyers may look to take advantage.
Kiwi climbs as Hawkesby sticks to rate cut plan
RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby doubled down on plans to lower the cash rate to 2.5% by year-end, saying the timing depends on how fast the economy bounces back. He admitted the hit to New Zealand businesses and households came as a surprise, and warned of possible ripple effects from rising tariffs. Despite the challenges, Hawkesby said the central bank remains focused on its goals, even as it faces a tough test of public trust.
NZD/USD is edging closer to the 0.6000 mark. Support sits at 0.5915, near the 21-day moving average.
Aussie hit overbought RSI levels
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 8 – 13 September
All times AEST
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
